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How CPMM prices shares, and how to read the numbers in the UI.
When you place a bet, read the form in this order:
Rule of thumb: if break-even after fees is 51%, you need to believe the outcome is better than 51% to make the trade attractive.
Class controls CPMM depth. Lower classes have thinner pools (faster odds movement, higher price impact). Higher classes have deeper pools (smoother odds movement, more flow capacity).
Values below are one-sided estimates from a balanced start, before fees. YES and NO each have these limits independently.
Soft (70%): comfortable operating zone with lower slippage.
Hard (85%): warning zone where odds can move faster and execution quality degrades.
Cap (100%): side limit; buys on that side stop once reached.
How to pick quickly
Use this when you need exact class tiers. For daily use, rely on the create slider recommendation and move one class up when expected flow is near Hard.
| Class | Best for | One-sided cap (shares) | Soft @70% (WBASED) | Hard @85% (WBASED) | Cap spend (WBASED) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10M Cap | Ultra-light flow | 1,000,000 | 1,891,892 | 3,617,021 | 10,000,000 |
| 20M Cap | Very light flow | 2,000,000 | 3,783,784 | 7,234,043 | 20,000,000 |
| 30M Cap | Very small flow | 3,000,000 | 5,675,676 | 10,851,064 | 30,000,000 |
| 50M Cap | Small retail flow | 5,000,000 | 9,459,459 | 18,085,106 | 50,000,000 |
| 70M Cap | Small flow | 7,000,000 | 13,243,243 | 25,319,149 | 70,000,000 |
| 100M Cap | Default creator size | 10,000,000 | 18,918,919 | 36,170,213 | 100,000,000 |
| 150M Cap | Medium flow | 15,000,000 | 28,378,378 | 54,255,319 | 150,000,000 |
| 200M Cap | Medium flow | 20,000,000 | 37,837,838 | 72,340,426 | 200,000,000 |
| 250M Cap | Medium-to-high flow | 25,000,000 | 47,297,297 | 90,425,532 | 250,000,000 |
| 300M Cap | Medium-to-high flow | 30,000,000 | 56,756,757 | 108,510,638 | 300,000,000 |
| 450M Cap | High flow | 45,000,000 | 85,135,135 | 162,765,957 | 450,000,000 |
| 600M Cap | High sustained flow | 60,000,000 | 113,513,514 | 217,021,277 | 600,000,000 |
| 750M Cap | Upper-mid sustained flow | 75,000,000 | 141,891,892 | 271,276,596 | 750,000,000 |
| 900M Cap | Large sustained flow | 90,000,000 | 170,270,270 | 325,531,915 | 900,000,000 |
| 1.2B Cap | Large-to-very-large flow | 120,000,000 | 227,027,027 | 434,042,553 | 1,200,000,000 |
| 1.5B Cap | Large-to-very-large flow | 150,000,000 | 283,783,784 | 542,553,191 | 1,500,000,000 |
| 1.8B Cap | Very large markets | 180,000,000 | 340,540,541 | 651,063,830 | 1,800,000,000 |
| 2.25B Cap | Very large sustained flow | 225,000,000 | 425,675,676 | 813,829,787 | 2,250,000,000 |
| 2.7B Cap | Very large sustained flow | 270,000,000 | 510,810,811 | 976,595,745 | 2,700,000,000 |
| 3.6B Cap | Flagship-scale flow | 360,000,000 | 681,081,081 | 1,302,127,660 | 3,600,000,000 |
| 4.5B Cap | Flagship-scale flow | 450,000,000 | 851,351,351 | 1,627,659,574 | 4,500,000,000 |
| 6.0B Cap | Institutional-scale flow | 600,000,000 | 1,135,135,135 | 2,170,212,766 | 6,000,000,000 |
| 7.5B Cap | Institutional-scale flow | 750,000,000 | 1,418,918,919 | 2,712,765,957 | 7,500,000,000 |
| 9.0B Cap | Maximum depth | 900,000,000 | 1,702,702,703 | 3,255,319,149 | 9,000,000,000 |
Classic and Perpetual create sliders recommend the smallest class that covers your expected one-sided spend with safety headroom. If your expected flow is near Hard, moving one tier up is usually the safer choice.
Trading is not time-capped by the class itself. It stops only when guardrails are hit.
Quick rule: pick a higher class when you expect larger sustained flow or larger order sizes.
Green summary: The main line now leads with current marginal price and a fee-adjusted full-value equivalent. That gives you the standard CPM intuition without pretending the pool settles like a fixed-claim share.
Break-even after fees: This is the probability threshold your trade needs after fees. It is the cleanest comparison point against current market price.
Pool payout if wins now: This answers a different question: what your position would claim if the market finalized immediately after your trade.
Pool payout/share after your buy: Shares are claims on the pool. More bets on your side dilute pool payout/share; more bets against you grow the pool without creating more winning shares.
Price impact (in details): Shown only when your trade moves the price by more than 10%. Tells you how much your size affects execution.
Historical chart: The chart should show CPMM marginal probability over time. It is not supposed to be a raw YES-vs-NO share inventory split.
On CPMM markets, the payout pool is shared. That means the fixed-claim intuition and the pool-claim payout can diverge. Three things can change the pool side of the story:
These numbers are rounded from a sample UI. The key point is that break-even rises with size, while pool payout remains a separate claim number.
Small trade (10 WBASED)
Current YES price: 50.0% Β· Full-value equivalent: ~19.6 WBASED (2.0x)
Break-even after fees: ~51.0%
Small trades have minimal price impact. Break-even stays close to the live CPMM price.
Larger trade (100 WBASED)
Current YES price: 50.0% Β· Full-value equivalent: ~196.1 WBASED (2.0x)
Break-even after fees: ~51.0%+
Public odds can still look similar, but larger size raises your fee-adjusted break-even.
CPMM keeps pricing responsive to pool balance while still reflecting price impact for larger trades. In KEKTECH, price and pool payout are related but distinct: price comes from the curve, while claims at settlement are still pro-rata to the pool snapshot.
Simplified formulas
Current marginal price = CPMM curve price for a tiny trade.
Full-value equivalent = base cost / current marginal price
Break-even after fees = total cost / full-value equivalent
Pool payout/share after your buy = pool / winning shares
Pool uses base cost only; fees do not enter the pool.
Pool payout if wins now = shares bought x pool payout/share after your buy
If you only read one thing: Start with current marginal price and break-even after fees. Use pool payout as a secondary settlement detail.
Expand "Details" for pool payout/share, pool payout if wins now, and price impact when you want to dig deeper.
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